Which top runningback should be avoided for this year's fantasy football draft?
Against all rankings here is my nomination:
LaDanian Tomlinson
What? I must be kidding, right? No, the Pro Football Prospectus once stated two statistically proven laws: The Law of the 370 carries and the Law of the 2000 rush attempts. The Law of the 370 carries said that if a runningback has 370 or more carries in one season, the chances are high that he'll get injured or lose effectiveness the following seasons. Last victims of the Law of the 370 carries were Shaun Alexander (370 carries in 2005 - injured in 2006) and Larry Johnson (400+ carries in 2006 - injured in 2007). LaDanian Tomlinson carried the ball 371 times in 2006 and in 2007 his average dropped from 5.2 to 4.7 and his total yards dropped from 2323 to 1949 yards. Tomlinson avoided the 370-curse in 2002, but you can't dodge the sword of Damocles twice.The Law of the 2000 rush attempts will also hit LaDanian Tomlinson this year. Pro Football Prospectus found out that workload ages a runningback more than time. The number of carries is more important than the age of a runningback to determine the point in time when he starts getting old. And the mark is 2000 career carries. If a runningback enters a season with more than 2000 carries, his rushing stats are likely to go down. Tomlinson enters the season with 2365 carries.
He is doomed!
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